The chart below shows the growth of South Africa’s rooftop solar installed capacity since 2022 and compares it to installed capacity for solar and wind (independent power producers) IPPs over the past five years. The growth of rooftop solar has been very rapid, so much so that we estimate that it is currently responsible for up to 13% of SA’s electricity needs at times of maximum solar production.
Source: Eskom
We have taken the most recent week of generation data available from Eskom’s disclosure and calculated the maximum power production from various forms of electricity generation.
We have included Eskom’s estimate of rooftop solar capacity and estimated production based on the relationship between capacity and production for solar photovoltaic (PV) IPPs. Based on these calculations, SA’s electricity demand is being served by the sources shown in the graph below.
Source: Eskom
The rapid growth in rooftop solar capacity is a strong argument for further opening up of South Africa’s energy generation, as well as rail and port logistics, to private operators. Policy seems to be moving in this direction, and hopefully it can result in further rapid rollout of capacity and execution, as we have seen with rooftop solar.
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