The rand’s recent resilience has surprised many, but it risks being misread. Strength in the currency over the past year owes less to domestic outperformance and more to a broader tailwind from emerging market and commodity-linked factors. As that support begins to fade, with oil prices rising and export dynamics softening, the rand’s footing looks increasingly uncertain over the short-mid term. However, renewed metals strength, a weaker USD and the SARB’s discipline to keep long term inflation anchored at 3% could drive the rand much stronger whenever energy markets normalise.

At the same time, South Africa’s policy room is narrow. The move to a 3% inflation target has bolstered credibility, but it comes at an awkward moment. Supply-side shocks, particularly in fuel and potentially food, are already filtering through the system. While central banks can look through first-round inflation, they cannot ignore the risk of second-round effects becoming embedded in expectations.
Indeed, in a public lecture this past Monday, SARB governor Lesetja Kganyago said that inflation is likely to rise over the next 12 months because of global supply shocks, especially higher fuel and food prices linked to Middle East tensions and possible El Niño conditions. However, he believes inflation should gradually return to the SARB’s 3% target over time.

He warned that the biggest risk is “second-round effects” – where higher fuel and food costs spread across the economy into wages and broader prices. While the rand has been surprisingly resilient, Kganyago says the SARB may still need to raise interest rates if inflation expectations become entrenched.
In our view, this leaves the SARB walking a tightrope. It is unlikely to diverge meaningfully from the global cycle, especially with capital flows sensitive to relative yields. Yet moving too aggressively risks placing further strain on a fragile recovery.
Our Market Snippets aim to provide concise insight into our investment research process. Each week, we highlight one chart that showcases our research, motivates our current positioning, or simply presents something interesting we’ve discovered in global financial markets.
For more of our current market views, please visit our website.





































