2024 is set to be the year of elections. Time Magazine reports that at least 64 countries, representing about half of the world’s population, will hold elections this year.
This, of course, includes South Africa, and with less than three months until South Africa goes to the polls in the 2024 general election, we take a look at the opinion polls that have been released so far and attempt to average the data released by these polls.
Below, we plot the outcomes of nine opinion polls by five different providers over the past year and a half. In aggregate, these polls covered about 26, 000 respondents. We have added a weighted moving average and an estimate of one standard deviation error band on each side for the largest three parties in SA.
Source: SRF, SABI, IPSOS, Change Starts Now, Markdata
Averaging across these polls and weighting by both survey size and recency of the survey, we get an average of about 44% for the ANC, 23% for the DA, and 17% for the EFF. But it is important to note that there is significant variability in the polling data that has been published so far, leading to wide error ranges on these averages. In addition, voter preferences may still be shifting.
Global investors will mainly focus on the prospects for policy continuity after this election. The consensus view among investors and investment banks seems to be that an election outcome that sees the ANC achieving between 45% and 50% of the vote will enable the formation of a coalition government between the ANC and a few smaller parties, likely leading to policy continuity. This result is likely to be taken reasonably well by global markets.
A result that sees the ANC closer to 40% of the vote will increase the difficulty of forming a coalition government and may lead to increased policy uncertainty, an outcome that could see South African assets remain cheap and under owned by global investors.
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