A question never far from the mind of any of us with monthly bond payments.
The consensus seems to be for about 100 basis points of rate cuts this year. While I can’t argue that this is an unreasonable base case, I do think that the risk to rates remains on the upside; in other words, there is a risk that we may get fewer cuts than the consensus expects.
Source: Bloomberg
What is the reason for this pessimistic view?
The differential between real cash rates in Rands and Dollars is low relative to history, and the SARB will want this differential to normalise over this cutting cycle. It seems reasonable to expect the SARB to cut after the Fed and to cut slower than the Fed.
The risk to US rates also seems to be to the upside. The Fed continues to guide to only 75 basis points of cuts this year, while the consensus forecast and Fed fund futures are expecting about 150 basis points over the next year.
Source: Bloomberg
The risk to US rates also seems to be to the upside. The Fed continues to guide to only 75 basis points of cuts this year, while the consensus forecast and Fed fund futures are expecting about 150 basis points over the next year.
The US labour market is strong, and economic growth seems to be bottoming out and possibly rebounding. Very little about the current US economy seems to be compelling the Fed to cut rates aggressively.
SA-specific issues could also lead to some upside inflation surprises. The inflationary impacts of load shedding were broadly unexpected and delays at South African ports and poor freight rail performance could similarly lead to some upward inflationary pressures.
So while we do believe that policy rates in both the US and SA will be significantly lower over the next two years, we remain cautious about the pace of cuts over this year.
– Brad Preston, Chief Investment Officer
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